Cory' Pick

 

 

Section 1: Finding a new stock...
Narrow down the list
You can use this link for a screener of stocks that meet a lot of the criteria below...Click Here
OR
  1. Pick the industry that I'm interested in. Look at the bottom left of this page: Sector Summary
  2. Check the head lines: Wall Street Journal, USA Today
  3. Narrow down to stocks, that you've at least heard of
  4. In most cases you are best dealing with the largest in the sector
  5. If I know anyone that works for the company or in the sector talk to them
Now that you have a specific stock to look at enter it here, this will make all the links below go directly to your stock.

Stock Ticker:
Currently working with: GOOG, Google
Current Price: N/A
  1. Read on Reuters a summary of the company... Click Here
  2. Check that the company is doing better than the industry in a majority of common ratios. This can be found adding the ticker to the end of this link, Click Here
  3. Buffet Analysis
    1. Gross Profit Margin over 40% - this shows how good of a job the money that is spent does making money. This can be found adding the ticker symbol to the end of this, Click Here
    2. Net Profit Margin over 15% - this shows how much of a competitive advantage the company has, if they have a higher number that means they can mark up there prices more since they are a dominate force in there sector. Click Here
    3. Return on Equity over 15% for 1 and 5 years- this shows the rate of return on the ownerships interest of common stock owners. Click Here
    4. Does the company have increasing debt, if a company has increasing dept it may be a sign that they aren't making enough to pay off current debt. Click Here
    5. Net Income over Total Revenue over 20% - this is a measure of how well management is using the money that is coming in, Click Here
    6. Increasing Net Income - pretty simple, we're looking to make sure that each year they are making more money. Click Here
    7. 10 Year EPS trending up - here we are looking for a company that is durable not one that is going to have a good year here and there. Click Here
    8. Increasing and Positive retained earnings - This shows that a company is continuing to make money and has money on hand. Click Here
  4. Reasonable P/E, normally this would be under 20, but more importantly is that it's lower than the rest of its industry. Click Here N/A
  5. Reasonable PEG, A PEG of 1 should mean the company is valued so a PEG under 1 should be undervalued. Click Here N/A

At this point if you feel comfortable with the stock that you have picked, it's time to buy. There are several schools of thought on picking a proper time to buy a stock, I'm just going to write about two of them here;

  1. The company is a solid long term investment and pays a dividend. In this case you are not looking for valley, you are buying a solid stock that you aren't planning to sell. This mean you can buy at pretty much any time, but will fair much better during a downturn where every stock is low you have the opportunity to buy the best stocks at discounted rates.
  2. Looking at the chart. There are hundreds of book on charting and how to use them to time buys and sales, if you are trading stocks quickly this can be a viable option. Here you aren't betting on the quality of the stock, but more the emotion and predicabilty of humans. This link shows a chart of the stock that you were looking at above. Here are you looking for a where the 20 day average crosses the 100 day average (showing momentum) followed by an upward trend and lastly a high volume day. In a lot of cases this indicates a buying opportunity based on this charting theory. It doesn't work every time, but is pretty effective when you have already picked the stock you want to buy and are just looking for the best buy point.
CLICK HERE TO SEE A LIST OF THE STOCKS THAT I'M LIKELY TO BUY WHEN DOING VALUE INVESTING.

Check out summaries of your stock on various investment sites:
Google Finance Google Finance (SEC Filings,Recent News)
Yahoo! Finance Yahoo! Finance (Key Stats,Analyst Estimates,Charting)
MSN Money MSN Moneycentral (Major Holders,Financial Statement)
Stock TA Stock TA
Reuters Reuters (Company Overview)
Investors Business Daily Investors Business Daily
RTS Stock Reports RTS Stock Reports (Comment)
Motley Fool The Motley Fool
Market Watch  Market Watch (Analyst Opinion)
Morningstar  Morningstar (Options)
Seeking Alpha Seeking Alpha (Transcripts)
AOL Finance AOL Finance (Events)
Portfolio Grader Portfolio Grader

 

Section 2: Economic Indicators ...

Census Bureau

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM
Summary

  • Sales and inventory data for Manufacturers, Retailers and Wholesalers
  • If the inventory-to-sales ratio is rising, stocks will rise and interest rates will fall
  • Calculated using dollar values ot sales compared to inventories
  • Inventory buildup may reflect potential for economic weekness

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM
Summary

  • Provides a designated principal economic indicator and the earliest available monthly estimates of broad based retail trade activity.

U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM
Summary

  • Trade balance, compares imports and exports of goods and services
  • If the trade deficit is narrowing stocks will fall and interest rates will rise
  • A widening of the trade deficit can reflect economic weakness
  • Calculation is complicated causing it to lag all other indicators

Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 10:00 AM

Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 10:00 AM

Construction Spending

Quarterly Financial Report - Retail Trade

Quarterly Financial Report - Manufacturing, Mining and Trade

New Home Sales

Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM

Quarterly Services Survey

Housing Vacancies and Homeownership

 

Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Gross Domestic Product
Frequency - Quarterly Data, Revised Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM

Personal Income and Outlays
Frequency - Monthly
Hour - 8:30 AM

U.S. International Transactions
Frequency - Quarterly
Hour - 8:30 A.M

The Conference Board
Consumer Confidence Index
Summary
  • The degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers are expressing through savings and spending. The Federal Reserve looks at the CCI when determining interest rate changes, and it also affects stock market prices. It has historically been a good predictor of consumer spending and, therefore, the gross domestic product. The most widely cited index, from The Conference Board, is released on the last Tuesday of each month. It is calculated using a household survey: opinions on current conditions (40%) and expectations of future conditions (60%). The index is benchmarked to 1985=100. Related index: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Help-Wanted Online

Employment Trends Index

CEO Confidence

 

Current info: GOOG

Section 3: Education ...

Intrinsic Value

Definition: The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying perception of its true value including all aspects of the business, in terms of both tangible and intangible factors. This value may or may not be the same as the current market value. Value investors use a variety of analytical techniques in order to estimate the intrinsic value of securities in hopes of finding investments where the true value of the investment exceeds its current market value.

How to calculate it:

  1. Open this Google Doc and click the Edit link on the bottom Click Here
  2. Open this link and from there copy the entire 10 year income statement, then paste it into the Google Doc you just opened. Click Here You need to paste it in the big yellow section on top
  3. All the yellow sections need to be filled in manually
    • Get the PE (N/A), Dividend Yield (0) and Current Price (N/A) Click Here
    • Fill in the expected ROI (Return on Investment) this is how much you want to make per year on the investment, the default is 10%, but can be whatever you want.
    • Remove any outliers by putting a "x" in the "x for outlier column, is would be if a company has a one off year where they had a huge gain or loss reative to every other year.

Random Stock Definition
Momentum Analysis: Usually Involves Looking For Stocks In A Strong Uptrend (High Relative Strength), Strong Earnings Growth, And Increasing Earnings Forecasts. In Today's Market, May Include Relative Strength Only.

 

Section 4: Speculative Investing ...

Speculative investing is considered the highest risk and therefore offers the potential for higher returns. Speculative investing is not suitable for all investors.

Types of speculative investing

  1. Peak of a Bull Market
  2. Possible Takeover
  3. Can't Go Any Lower
  4. Bandwagon Jumping
  5. Fresh Off the Press
Peak of a Bull Market
At the peak of a bull market, when all the value "good" stocks have started trading above their intrinsic value and you have extra cash that you are willing to roll the dice with, speculation MAY be the way to go. At the end of a bull market you will have people that go crazy buying everying irregardless of numbers just because it's the stock of the moment. Remember when you are trading speculatively you are NOT making an investment, get in and get out. Don't buy the stock until you have a sell price established.

Possible Takeover
Normally by the time it makes the news it's already too late and the price that will be paid for the stock in the takeover is already worked into the price. A speculative bit is that there will be multiple bids or you buy the stock ahead of the news which is basically finding a great company that is attractive to big time investors or other larger corporations.

Can't Go Any Lower
Popular during a recession, this is when a stock keeps going down lower and lower and gets to the point that you can't think of any way that it can go any lower. A good idea when partaking in this type of speculation is to plan on buying in serveral times on the way down. You also need to decide if this stock is going to down for a valid reason if so this is a trade and you need to sell after the bounce at the bottom, if this is a good company that is having solvable problems this is more of an investment and if it meets criteria from section 1 of this site may actually be a value investment.